Welcome to the grand opening of Isaac Hunter's Tavern.  The original was the area's favorite watering hole back in the late 1700s.  So popular, in fact, that when the state legislature chose Raleigh's location in 1788, the lawmakers specified that the capital city had to be built within 10 miles of Hunter's Tavern.  It was the place to find out what was going on in state politics, on and off the record.

I'm hoping to do some of the same with this blog.  The top stories of the day,  breaking news as it happens at the legislature, plus analysis and occasional bits of rampant speculation.  No beer in this Tavern, of course, but then again, you don't have ride 10 miles to visit, either.  Please come back soon!

The AP reported today that Edgecombe Rep. Joe Tolson has stepped out of the ring for Wednesday night's Speaker vote.  The House Dems meet at 7pm, and with a 68-52 edge, their pick (assuming they can make one and stick to it) will be the next Speaker.  Hugh Holliman, Bill Faison, and of course former Speaker Jim Black have all removed their hats from the ring, too.  Here's a quick look at the five remaining contenders:

Rep Joe Hackney - current House Majority Leader - Orange Co.
Pros:  Seasoned, tough, herds cats almost as well as Jim Black.  Managed to push through an unpopular package of ethics and campaign finance reforms last session, even when it appeared to be destined for failure. 
Cons: Seen by more conservative Dems as left of center, though he's done a smart job with a centrist agenda in recent years. He can also be a little stern and more than a little gruff.  That may not work in his favor with new Dems who don't know him well.

Rep Dan Blue - former House speaker (1991-94) - Wake Co.

Pros: His resume. He already knows how to handle the job. He's progressive but pragmatic, a talented politician who's likely to work with both parties.  Thanks to his absence from 2002-06, he has absolutely no connection to any of the House's recent ethical troubles.
Cons:  His resume.  He wanted to return to the speakership in '99, but suffered a narrow defeat despite last-minute deals with the GOP.  The rest is history, and it wasn't pretty.  He still has a lot of baggage. Plus, many Dems in the house now weren't there during the early nineties, so they may not feel much loyalty to the former Speaker.  The Legislative Black Caucus isn't completely behind him, either - two of the LBC's leaders aren't on board.

Rep Mickey Michaux - Senior Dem, J-2 chair, LBC leader - Durham Co.
Pros: His 27 years in the house have earned him a lot of status and more than a few favors.  He's plain-spoken, funny, and very smart.
Cons:  His habit of speaking his mind could be seen as a potential lightning rod for controversy.  He's also on the liberal side, like Hackney. And with the Black Caucus largely backing Blue, it's not clear where he'll find his core support.

Rep Jim Crawford - Veteran Dem, perennial budget "big chair" - Granville Co.
Pros:  He's been around for 22 years, close to Black for the past 8, so he has plenty of insight into how the place works, and he's made a lot of friends. He's viewed as a savvy pro-business conservative who works well with Republicans.
Cons:  May be too "business-friendly" and too conservative for the more progressive wing of the caucus, including some of its new members. And he was a loyal lieutenant under Black, though he hasn't been touched by any of Black's troubles.

Rep Drew Saunders -  Utilities Comm. chair, budget transportation sub chair - Mecklenberg Co.
Pros: He's the only candidate from Charlotte, a large legislative contingent that's fared well under Jim Black.  They may back Saunders to keep the largesse coming after Black's departure.  Saunders is seen as business-friendly, and works well with the GOP, but he's also run or supported some progressive causes.
Cons:  He's mostly funded by the telecommunications, utilities, and banking lobbies, so he may be viewed by progressives as too friendly to big business.  Like Crawford, he's also seen as a loyal friend of Black's, but not connected to the scandals around Black's office.

Wild Cards -

1. The Republicans may be in the minority, but there are 52 of them -- more than enough to make it likely that some will seek to cut a deal with one of the candidates who doesn't win Wednesday night.  And with such a wide gamut of ideological positions within the Dem caucus itself, it's possible one or the other extreme will break away if they don't like the caucus's choice.
   
2. With no hard-and-fast favorite, it's always possible the caucus could pass over the short list and pick someone else entirely.
   
3. Wednesday's vote is for the caucus's nominee, not for the Speakership itself.  Things can change in two weeks - it wouldn't be the first time.
   

As things stand now, I think it'll be Hackney. Check back late Wednesday night to find out.

A quick update:  former House Dem Majority Leader Joe Hackney was nominated tonight to be his caucus's candidate for House Speaker.  But it took all of four ballots.  Michaux was the first to be eliminated, then Saunders, and then Blue.  Once Blue was out of the running, most of his supporters fell in behind Hackney, who won 41 votes on the final ballot, Jim Crawford won 23, and two members voted for Blue, even after he'd been eliminated.

Craven rep and Finance chair William Wainwright is the new Pro Tem nominee, defeating Mecklenberg's Beverly Earle.

The Dems also chose Hugh Holliman as their new majority leader after a lengthy debate about rules. Going in, Holliman's competition was a co-leadership ticket - Pryor Gibson (Anson Co) and Marian McLawhorn (Pitt).  But the caucus decided the rules don't allow multiple majority leaders. After a debate about whether to suspend that rule, they decided not to. So Gibson dropped off the ticket and McLawhorn ran alone. Bill Owens (Pasquotank) was also nominated from the floor.  In the end, Holliman won on the second ballot.

More later....

Patio seating

Last night's House Dems caucus meeting looked interesting - from a distance, at least.  The press wasn't allowed access - state public meetings law apparently makes an exception for political caucuses - so while we could see the sides of the 3rd floor auditorium, we couldn't see the podium.  But the third floor of the legislature has rooftop patios. If you walk outside, you can see everything through the gallery windows.  It was like watching TV with the sound turned off, but the body language was pretty illustrative.  First, there was a procession of nominating speeches. Then the speaker candidates headed to the podium to make their pitches. Joe Hackney was cautious, steady, still.  Drew Saunders looked a little stiff.  Dan Blue, on the other hand, was passionate - pounding the podium, pointing out into the audience.  Jim Crawford was more animated than I've ever seen him.  Lots of "inclusive" gestures.  And Mickey Michaux, coming last, appeared to be doing his best "Look, folks" reality check.  In the end, though, it went to...

Speaker Hackney?

Could be.  Hackney won the nomination on the fourth ballot with 41 votes to Crawford's 23 - not quite two-thirds.  Is it enough?  Crawford indicated that, at least as of last night, he's not interested in taking his votes across the aisle to wheel and deal with the GOP.   But two weeks is plenty of time to change your mind. And there's little doubt that many House Republicans would rather see the more conservative Crawford on the dais than Hackney, whom they still regard as a liberal, despite his moves toward the center over the past two sessions. 

And then there's Blue.  His third place showing was respectable, but not as strong as many observers expected, topping out at 19 votes.  Some lawmakers have mentioned an "anybody but Blue" backlash, led by longtime Dems offended by his open ambition after four years of absence. He had the support of most of the Legislative Black Caucus, many of whom went on to back Hackney after Blue's elimination.  Would they come back if he cut a deal with the GOP? That's what he did in '99, and almost repeated in 2001.  He spent a lot of tonight's meeting talking to other past and present candidates, especially Bill Faison, but Blue says there was no orchestrated deal to support either of the top two contenders.   He also says he's looking forward to working with Hackney.

Of course, there's no guarantee the GOP would deal anyway, especially after last year's internecine strife in the primaries.  They haven't put up their own Speaker candidate yet, but minority leader Skip Stam says it isn't out of the question. 

Other wins

Finance co chair William Wainwright took the nomination for Pro Tem over Mecklenberg's Beverly Earle, leaving Charlotte out of the money for the first time in 8 years.   And Hugh Holliman is the new majority leader, besting Marian McLawhorn and Bill Owens.  After the meeting, Holliman said he feels comfortable the caucus will unite behind Hackney in two weeks.  If not, he'll be on point to deal with it.