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Wednesday Wrap-up
posted at 2008-02-06 23:59 | Last modified 2008-02-07 00:25
Say what?
During his speech today to the Joint Boards of Education, Governor Mike Easley made an interesting pronoun choice. Here’s the quote:
“I hope the federal government will play a bigger role as we move into the next presidency. And I think she will. [Crowd murmurs.] You gotta try.”
I asked the Gov’s press office whether a) that was an endorsement, or b) he’s looking to line up a job. I was quickly assured that no, it was a slip, that there’s plenty of time between now and May for such things, and that when the Governor makes an endorsement, it will be clear. (And it might even matter. See below for more on that.)
Assuming all that’s true, there’s still the speech itself. Not just what he talked about (like his educational initiatives), but how he talked about it.
When Easley gives a speech, it's usually either conversational (for friendly groups) or executive/prosecutorial (for everyone else). But his stump style is entirely different – more animated, more rhythmic, almost like a preacher. It’s hard to explain here, but if you’re in the room when he shifts into campaign style, it’s as palpable as a transmission shifting gears. It happened today, just for a minute or two. But it was clear enough to leave some of us press types wondering (again) what he might be running for.
People who know Easley tell me he’s sincerely passionate about education, and that, in a lame-duck year dogged by a likely recession, he’s trying to rally the troops to protect his legacy programs. That’s probably true. But I understand there’s a cabinet post or two opening up, too -- like, say, Education?
So about that endorsement…
Now what?
The Ds:
As one campaign consultant put it, “It’s like Groundhog Day.” For the Dems, at least, Super-Duper Tuesday didn’t live up to its hype, thanks to all those “proportional” primaries. Neither Clinton nor Obama came out much better than s/he went in. So now they get to do it all over again – in the Potomac Primary, and PA, and OH, and TX – and maybe even here.
If that happens, it’ll be deliciously ironic. Last year, some lawmakers made a determined but unsuccessful bid to roll back NC’s primary to give us “more influence and attention” – the same argument made by the other 16 or so states who moved their primaries up to Super Tuesday. That might have worked for one or two. But in the resulting scrum of two dozen states, no one got more attention than usual. Most got less. MI and FL even lost their delegates over it.
NC’s May primary, on the other hand, could garner more attention than it has in at least twenty years. We’re a gold mine in terms of conference delegates, and in a close race, we could be one of the last true jackpots.
The Rs:
McCain’s better than halfway to the nomination in terms of delegates won, but that may not be the end of the story. Even though most of last night’s GOP contests were “winner take all,” more than half of the delegates McCain won came from “asterisk” states – states that reserve the right (in the fine print, of course) to "award delegates through allocation methods other than winner take all."
Would they do it? It probably depends on just how many GOP voters threaten to stay home. There’s an incipient revolution among hard-core conservatives, some of whom are threatening to vote for Hillary rather than back McCain. That's got some state-level conservatives worried about the down-ticket effect of depressed base turnout. Those are the same folks who decide how to allocate state delegates. You’ve got to figure they’re doing the math.
Tune in
UNC-TV’s second gubernatorial forum is Thursday night. This one’s on health care. Orr, McCrory, Graham, and Smith will face off for half the show, and Moore and Perdue will get the other half.
I’m expecting some fireworks on both sides. Bill Graham is a trial lawyer, so it's a pretty safe bet one of the other three GOP hopefuls will talk about tort reform and malpractice. On the other side, Richard Moore’s pretty much bound to critique Bev Perdue’s track record as chair of the state Health and Wellness Trust Fund.
You can catch the show at 10pm in the Triangle on regular UNC-TV.
Comments? Drop me a line.
