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Wednesday: SND
posted at 2007-12-26 23:59 | Last modified 2007-12-27 08:13
The day after Christmas is the textbook definition of a "Slooooooow News Day." Half of the country is on their way back from family visits, and the other half is at the after-Christmas sales...all of which means no one’s about to make news on purpose, or at least not if they want you to notice it.
That said, there’s always a little something happening anyway, plus the holiday news leftovers some of us reporters didn’t get to on our way out of town last week.
Rasmussen numbers
The Rasmussen Report released new numbers today from a Dec 19th poll of 500 “likely voters” in NC (HT: Dome). The results are interesting, but the methodology’s a little puzzling.
Rasmussen, for you non poll-geeks out there, is a survey firm started a few years back by ESPN co-founder and evangelical Christian Scott Rasmussen. It enjoys a fairly good reputation, particularly among conservatives. The Wall Street Journal gave it pretty high marks last year.
Anyway, the new numbers look good for Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, a potential but undeclared GOP contender for governor in ’08. The poll puts him slightly ahead of Dems Bev Perdue and Richard Moore at 42-39 for both races – well within the margin of error. But if you’re wondering how the declared Republicans fared, you’re out of luck: no one asked.
The national numbers show Hillary Clinton losing NC to McCain, Giuliani, and Huckabee, but beating Romney, though all four races are easily within the generous 4.5% margin of error.
Here’s what seems strange to me …
- By December 19th , Hillary Clinton had long since lost the title of presumptive Dem nominee. Her lead in early caucus states was widely rumored to be slipping. So why didn’t Rasmussen match up GOP hopefuls with anyone else – especially since Obama won the ACC ticket question? This IS North Carolina, guys - basketball tickets MEAN something here.
- Why would you poll gubernatorial matchups between two Dems and a Republican who hasn’t even declared yet, but fail to bring up any of the three GOP contenders (Orr, Graham, Smith) who’ve been actively campaigning for months?
Both these omissions constitute serious damage to context. More to the point, they (ought to) lead you to wonder who paid for this poll. Dome says Fox News cosponsored it, which makes sense given the survey’s near-exclusive focus on conservative issues like immigration, religion, and trade. To wit:
- 91% believe English should be the official language of the US
- 59% say the US should impose tariffs on foreign goods
- 54% believe environmentalists care less about the planet than about “another political agenda”
- 44% say the government should not help borrowers stuck in subprime mortgages
NASCAR?
And then there’s the dead giveaway that this poll might not be on the level...
“What's more important, going to church or going to a Nascar race?"
84% Going to church
7% Going to a Nascar race
9% Not sure
First, anyone who knows NC knows that, most of the time, NASCAR and the church work things out so as to coexist peacefully, which makes the whole issue pretty much moot. If they had to choose, most Tarheels would tell you they’d pick church. Their pastors might tell you otherwise.
But the biggest problem above is the utterly implausible finding that nine percent of us are “not sure” which we’d pick. If you’ve lived here for any length of time, I can guarantee you’ve already had occasion to reflect on your feelings about both church and NASCAR -- and you probably already know which one you’d go to, whether you’d admit it to a stranger or not.
Okay, seriously...
Best wishes to House Speaker Joe Hackney, recovering this week from surgery for prostate cancer. Hackney’s office announced late last week he’d undergone surgery at UNC after doctors found a malignant growth during a routine annual checkup. The surgery reportedly went well: Spokesman Bill Holmes says Hackney is recuperating at home this week, and isn’t expected to require additional chemo or radiation treatment. Good luck, Mr. Speaker, and get well soon!
Comments? Drop me a line.
