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Wednesday: Hawkeye Countdown
posted at 2008-01-02 23:43 | Last modified 2008-01-03 00:08
Well, it’s about 24 hours till we know who won Iowa. That castanet sound you can hear from here is the chattering of candidates’ teeth at the prospect of failing to crack their party's top three, also known (for good reason) as "in the money."
It’s a nerve-racking night every four years…but this year, neither polls nor pundits are offering anyone in the game much comfort. The question tonight seems to hinge on the Big Mo - momentum. The poll numbers are all pretty close, but they're only snapshots. The real story is in who's picking up speed and who's dead in the water.
Oba-mo
The latest Des Moines Register poll puts Obama and Huckabee pretty well up on their respective fields. A survey of 800 “likely Democratic caucus-goers” shows Obama steaming ahead at 32, while Clinton and Edwards hold their support at 25 and 24, respectively. (NB: The DMR poll doesn’t offer any definition for “likely caucus-goers,” so it’s hard to tell what that means. See below for more on first-timers.)
Or no mo...
Another poll, by InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research (the folks who pegged Iowa in ’04), puts Clinton at 30, Edwards at 29, and Obama flagging at 22. It also included this interesting finding:
“Critically, Edwards was the second choice of 62% of those who supported other candidates that did not receive the required 15% of the vote. Clinton was the second choice of 21% and Obama of 17%.”
Once those second choice votes are reallocated, IA/MOR says the spread changes:
"Edwards: 41%
Clinton: 34%
Obama: 25%"
Geez - three frontrunners in two polls? That’s gotta be a record.
Hucka-Bounce?
Could be. The DMR poll puts Huck back up by 6 over Romney, 32 to 26. Maybe his non-introduction of that negative ad Monday helped, though it cost him plenty. (You have to wonder what Ed Rollins really thinks about that.)
IA/MOR “didn’t feel comfortable” releasing their GOP numbers (very odd). But just this weekend, a McClatchy-MSNBC poll had Huckabee sinking below a resurgent Romney. So did Huckabee get his groove back? Or is the DMR poll running behind the headlines?
Crystal ball time
Try as I might to avoid pure, unfettered speculation, I just can’t this time. I'm blaming it on Ryan Teague Beckwith for starting an office pool over at Dome.
Based on polls, fundraising, supporter profiles, weather forecasts, and tea leaves, here’s my guess.
Dems:
- Obama*
- Edwards*
- Clinton
* Depends on second-place votes. Who wins may depend on whom Bill Richardson and Joe Biden decide to back.
Kucinich recommended Obama as a second choice for his supporters, which was something of an affront to Edwards, who got Kucinich’s Iowa nod in ’04. So far, neither Bill Richardson nor Joe Biden has made any such recommendation. Biden probably won’t. But Richardson might horsetrade for VP or a plum cabinet job.
GOP
The nice thing here is that the Iowa GOP doesn’t do the second-choice caucus thing, so you don’t have to do much math – it’s pretty much a straw poll. My guess:
- Huckabee
- Romney
- Paul
Here's why:
- Huckabee is keeping pace with Romney despite being outspent by about 20 to 1, so he clearly has something going for him -- maybe something that will make people give up a couple of hours on a Thursday night.
- The DMR poll puts Paul tied for fourth at 9% with Fred Thompson. McCain’s in third at 13%. But – and it’s a big but, admittedly – if anyone’s supporters can be counted on to show up tomorrow night, it’d be Ron Paul’s. (WaPo’s Libby Copeland had this piece about Dr. Ron's Army in IA, but I’ve seen the same devotion here in NC, too.) So I’m betting Paul will edge past McCain into third.
Still and all, it’s a crapshoot, and if I do better than .500 I’ll be thrilled. Feel free to send me your own, probably better, guesses here.
Young spoilers?
The rules that govern the Iowa caucus structure are rigid: you have to be at X address at X o'clock on Thursday evening. If you’re late, you’re not allowed in. You stay till it’s over. This doesn’t favor folks who don’t have nine to five jobs, or who work second jobs in the evening, or who have a hard time finding child care -- all of which contributes to the conventional wisdom that young folks don’t show up at the caucus.
Then again, this could be the year that proves the CW wrong. Polls don’t measure this demographic very well because many don’t even have land lines to call – they use mobile numbers that aren’t available to pollsters. All I can say, anecdotally, is that the young voters I’ve talked to seem far more engaged this time than they’ve been since the Vietnam War. Blame it on Iraq, or Facebook, or whatever you like, but if they show up, it could very well change this election. The Sun Times’ Abdon Pallasch had this story on what that might look like.
Geek out
Youtube has equipped reporters at the Des Moines Register with netcams to record the action at tomorrow night’s caucuses. The popular site is also hosting Iowa “voter videos” that range from the sublime to…well, you know. (Who’d have guessed cats prefer Huckabee?)
NPR is putting on its own two-hour caucus wonk-a-thon, anchored by ATC host Robert Siegel. That starts at 10pm Thursday night on WUNC.
Wishing you all a bright, Happy New Year!
Comments? Drop me a line.
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