Monday: Making the call

Created by Laura Leslie
posted at 2008-11-03 22:38 | Last modified 2008-11-03 23:15

People keep asking me which candidates will win tomorrow. I don’t know, and I’m not being coy when I say that. This year’s campaign season has thrown every old rule out the window – from “negative ads work” to “young voters don’t turn out” to, possibly, the “Charlotte curse.”

I’ve pretty much given up reading poll numbers, too. There are just too many variables. How are the pollsters defining “likely voters”? If they have to have voted for president in 2004, that rules out everyone under 22 or 23. I doubt that’s wise. What models are the pollsters using for black voter turnout? Are they using cell phones as well as land lines? Are they calling back over 2 or 3 nights, or just one? If it’s one, is it a church night?

There’s a reason we vote, and I’m happy to wait to see what we all decided. But if I absolutely HAD to put down five bucks on each of the big three races, here’s how I’d bet NC will go:

President: McCain, but by a very, very narrow margin.

Senate: Hagan by at least 3 or 4. Liddy Dole’s “Godless” ad may have played well to her base, but polling shows it hurt her with the voters she needed most – the independents and conservative Dems that sent her to DC in 2002.

Governor: This is the one that gives me the most heartburn, but I’m going to say McCrory by a hair for three reasons:

He has a huge built-in voter base in Charlotte.
He picked the right message–change—and stuck to it in a largely positive campaign that seems to have resonated. I’ve seen a lot of cars with Obama and McCrory stickers.
Perdue’s still battling an enthusiasm gap after a very ugly primary. Her party loyalty numbers are starting to come back up, but it may be too little, too late. (Seen Richard Moore out campaigning for her? Me neither.)

Again, I’m just going on gut here, and a LOT depends on the top of the ticket. If Obama wins NC, Perdue probably will, too. And if McCain blows it out, McCrory’s in. But if it’s close, well…that’s why I’m only betting five bucks.

Off the hook

I’m an unaffiliated voter in a swing-ish neighborhood in Wake County, and I’ve never been so popular. Just for the heck of it, I’ve been collecting all the robocalls I’ve gotten since about Oct. 5th. So for all of you who’ve somehow missed out on the "fun" of swing-state-voterdom, here's a month in the life of an unaffiliated answering machine in NC.

Listen Now!

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Playlist:

@ :03 – Freedom’s Watch (527) on offshore drilling – anti-Hagan
@ :47 – Freedom’s Watch again on economics – pro-Dole, anti-Schumer
@1:30 – Bev Perdue for Obama, straight ticket, and judges
@2:14 – NCGOP – early GOTV
@2:54 – volunteer Sherlita for Obama – early GOTV
@3:40 – NCGOP – early GOTV again
@4:19 – judicial candidate Walter Rand
@4:52 – Anti-robocall robocall from Obama surrogate Lenny Julius
@5:38 – Michelle Obama for Obama – early GOTV
@6:27 – Majority Action (527) – anti-Dole
@7:08 – Wendy McCoy (sp?) for Obama- early voting march
@7:56 – "Grey's Anatomy" actress Ellen Pompeo for Obama – early GOTV (bad quality – sorry!)
@8:33 – volunteer Deborah Judd for Obama – early GOTV – time’s running out
@9:13 – Judicial candidate Walter Rand again (bad quality – sorry!)

There was one more NCGOP GOTV call this afternoon, but it inadvertently got taped over by this evening’s pièce de resistance, Hank Williams Jr. calling for McCain:

Listen Now!

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The ones that got away:

It’s harder than you'd think to remember NOT to pick up your phone. I accidentally answered pro-Obama calls from songwriter Roseanne Cash and Sopranos actress Edie Falco. Shoot. You can hear the Falco ad here, but I couldn’t find the Cash call anywhere online (it’s about health care).

Palin in Raleigh

Dave DeWitt had a nice story this morning on how NC women are reacting to GOP veep pick Sarah Palin. If you missed it, catch up here.

One more day…

And none too soon. Here’s a sterling example of why I’m so ready for this election to be over. Andrea Isom at Detroit’s Fox 2 News had this story on Shirley Nagel, a Grosse Point Farms woman who turned away trick or treaters who said they liked Obama.