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Monday late: Numbers and letters
posted at 2007-10-08 23:59 | Last modified 2007-11-14 10:38
Public Policy Polling put out some new primary numbers today, the first since Lt Gov Bev Perdue officially entered the Governor’s race. You’ll be shocked, I’m sure, to hear that the big picture hasn't changed all that much.
Perdue's lead over Treasurer Richard Moore has widened slightly from 7% to 10% among likely Dem voters. She’s now at 39% to his 29%, a margin that’s statistically significant beyond the 3.9% margin of error. About a third of Dems are undecided.
Over on the R side, Johnston Sen. Fred Smith is gaining some ground on the early leader, Bill “Cap the Gas Tax” Graham, who's at 19%. Smith’s up to 17% – probably due in no small part to his constant campaign barbecues all over the state. Former Supreme Court Justice Bob Orr is holding on at 11%. But it’s still a wide-open race: more than half of likely GOP voters remain undecided.
For me, the most interesting part of this latest survey is the downticket races no one’s been tracking so far...like the School Superintendent’s race, where incumbent June Atkinson has 32%, while her challenger, NCAE chief Eddie Davis, has 15%. More than half are undecided.
In the Dems’ Treasurer’s race, Wake Senator Janet Cowell and David Young are neck and neck at 14%. Michael Weisel, former counsel to GOP State Rep. Richard Morgan, is at 5%. Two thirds are undecided. On the GOP side, Nash Rep Bill Daughtridge has 20% to Forsyth Rep Dale Folwell’s 13%. Two thirds are undecided there, too.
You can see the whole PPP release here, including the crosstabs. There’s some interesting correlations between gender, race, and issues sprinkled throughout, like:
- Iraq is the number one issue among white Dems, especially men. But among black Dems, the economy ties Iraq for the most important issue.
- Just 6% of Dems identify immigration as their top issue. 23% of Republicans do.
- In the Dem governor’s race, Richard Moore has an edge among voters most concerned with values and immigration, while Bev Perdue’s backers are more concerned with education, health care, and the war in Iraq.
NYT: As you might expect, yesterday’s NYT article on the NC lottery didn’t find a lot of favor here. It was an interesting read, but not exactly balanced. (Okay, not even close to balanced.) Easley’s budget advisor Dan Gerlach called it a hatchet job
...you mean that the NYT should be shocked and appalled that not 100 percent of the money from a lottery sale goes to the profits, but some to prizes, administration, and payment to retailers? Well, tell me how we hid that in the public debate. It's fair game to say we reduced the profit - but it's not fair to intimate we reduced it from 100 to 30 percent…. No one ever promised that whatever amount the lottery made for education would pay for the whole dang education budget.
Neal: John Quinterno (NC Budget and Tax Center) sent this tongue-in-cheek response to my description of Dem Senate hopeful Jim Neal as “John Q. Democrat”:
On behalf of "John Q. Democrats" everywhere, I write to challenge your callous characterization of John Qs as being nobodies or at least nothing more than a placeholder for somebody more important. John Qs can be somebodies -- at least that's what my mom always told me. You know, John Qs have feelings too.Yes, John, they do – and you’re a role model for John Qs everywhere. :)
Thanks to Dan, John, and all the rest of you who've sent in comments. If you still haven't, here's how.
