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Lies, Dam*ed Lies, and Statistics
posted at 2007-09-20 23:57 | Last modified 2007-11-14 10:38
Poll-iticos
Don't know whether Senator Elizabeth Dole is vulnerable? Join the crowd.
New numbers out today from Public Policy Polling show that, name for name, Dole would beat even Carolina coaching legend Dean Smith in a Senate showdown.
But lest you think that seals the deal, here's a few more interesting numbers. Today's PPP release puts Dole's approval rating at 45%, versus 40% who disapprove. That's a long darned way from the 64%/23% she garnered in last week's poll commissioned by her own campaign. Back in April, Elon split the difference, showing her at 52%.
For argument's sake, let's suppose Elon's middle ground is correct. If so, she's potentially vulnerable - and today's PPP poll shows how that might work.
Dole handily won (45-30) a contest based on her name against likely contender Rep. Grier Martin (D-Wake). But when the poll described Martin's attributes, the balance quickly shifted in his favor, 47-40. Even with the margin of error, that's a tie.
To me, at least, that's a sign that, aside from her name (a formidable asset, to be sure), Dole doesn't have much substantive support. As Dome points out, PPP's description of Martin was glowingly positive -- but it doesn't hold a candle to what a talented campaign consultant could do with a photogenic young veteran in a military-friendly state.
Martin told me last week the only thing standing between him and declaring for the race is his concern about finding time for his family. Sure, that's a common political cliche, but in Martin's case, it's actually believable. (If you've ever watched the guy around his little girl, you know I'm right.) Still, I'd bet money he's ready to run -- and today's numbers make it look even more likely.
To be continued
Former uber-lobbyist Don Beason did make an appearance today in Wake District Court today, but only to request a continuance. His A1 misdemeanor case is rescheduled for October 30th.
"Cliff Bennett" rides again
Whatever "appropriate disciplinary action" she might have faced for falsifying her identity, Julie White was hard at work for Treasurer Richard Moore's campaign today with this press release about his "Carolina Cares for Children" plan. It looks a lot like the plan that Congress Dems and state HHS leaders are championing - covering kids in families making up to three times the federal poverty level, graduated premiums, the works.
Of course, it's also the plan that Moore's opponent, Lt. Gov Beverly Perdue, has publicly backed. But since she hasn't declared, Moore's seizing the opportunity to go on record with his positions first.
As for Perdue's positions, she has a built-in bully pulpit - she chairs the Health and Wellness Trust Fund, which is scheduled to release its policy recommendations shortly after she enters the governor's race.
Thursday's tops:
The best story of the day (week?) so far was Ryan Teague Beckwith's Michael Biesecker's vignette about Richard Moore at Cherry Hospital. It's a hilarious story - and a reminder to those of us who follow politics for a living that the majority of humans, well-adjusted or less so, don't. (Hat tip to RTB for the correction.)
Over at the NYT, Paul Krugman rants about what's wrong with US political coverage. I often don't agree with Krugman's rants, but this time, I think he's dead on. It's always easier (and sexier) to talk about the horse race than the issues, but that isn't really what election coverage is supposed to be about.
Cookie Monster
The BBC suspended a senior editor for rigging an online poll to pick the name of a new cat on the UK's most revered kids' show, "Blue Peter." Turns out the results of the online poll favored the name "Cookie." Show writers didn't like it, so they went with the Clinton-esque "Socks," claiming it won the poll.
Is nothing sacred? The Beeb? Blue Peter? Cute kittens? No wonder we're all cynics these days.
The Beeb issued an official apology today, along with news that show producers have pledged to add yet another cat to the show - and this one WILL be named Cookie.
Comments? Drop me a line.
