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Late Tues: NH Wrapup
posted at 2008-01-09 00:38 | Last modified 2008-01-09 00:38
Dems:
...What the heck happened? As late as this morning, Obama was predicted to practically waltz into a double-digit victory. He ended up in two points back in second place.
Clinton, whose campaign was in such disrepair she's reportedly revamping it, swept out front early and stayed there. Bleary CNN anchors rubbed their eyes and held back on calling it till there weren't enough votes left to change things. (Which is how they all ought to do it, if you ask me.)
"Sisters are doin' it..."
Women voters turned out to be the key demographic in the Dem race. In IA, they went for Obama. In NH, they backed Clinton by a double digit margin.
Was it the tears?
Oh, come on. Women aren't that susceptible to a few tears. But as I see it, the tears (which admittedly got her the kind of network coverage money CANNOT buy) were a symptom of what DID help her.
As frontrunner, Clinton was remote, icy, and uncommunicative, more concerned about convincing voters she was tough enough to be president than connecting with them as a human being. But frustration evidently succeeded where likability polls could not - she eased up, opened up, and started being herself, instead of the person focus groups said she ought to be. Just in time, too. Let's see if it sticks.
ABC, NYT, Fox, and Politico are all reporting Clinton's bringing some new/old faces into her campaign. More here.
Hey, Mister DJ
Obama might have reconsidered the soundtrack for his speech - "Signed Sealed Delivered" - in light of his second-place finish. Still, he did better than early expectations predicted. He'll be around for a while.
Whither Edwards?
Good question. Clinton's victory may have been worse news for Edwards than his own distant third place. It means there's no way he can narrow this race to two by the South Carolina primary Jan. 26th, which leaves him still fighting for a foothold between two celebrity candidates. And fighting for funders, too - had Clinton fared badly, Edwards might have seen a fundraising bump. But with both Senators still in play, that isn't likely to happen anytime soon.
So what's next? He says he's in it till the convention. Unless he's planning to self-finance, it's unclear how that would work. But stranger things have happened.
GOP
Deja vu '00?
Romney retrenches
Ouch. Given that southern NH is practically a MA suburb, it should've been closer. If Romney doesn't go through a campaign shake-up a la Clinton, he's not likely to do that much better elsewhere, either. Of course, he does have the resources to self-finance, but he's a savvy guy, and if he doesn't win MI, it's hard to see him throwing good money after bad.
Huckabee's Happy
Okay, 11% might not sound good to most candidates, but it's double Huckabee's pre-Iowa numbers in NH, and it was enough to beat Giuliani. Not bad for an evangelical in New Hampshire.
That's it for tonight. Back tomorrow with the Wright hearing.
Comments? Drop me a line.
