Document Actions
And then there were five...
posted at 2007-01-09 22:09 | Last modified 2007-11-14 10:38
The AP reported today that Edgecombe Rep. Joe Tolson has stepped out of the ring for Wednesday night's Speaker vote. The House Dems meet at 7pm, and with a 68-52 edge, their pick (assuming they can make one and stick to it) will be the next Speaker. Hugh Holliman, Bill Faison, and of course former Speaker Jim Black have all removed their hats from the ring, too. Here's a quick look at the five remaining contenders:
Rep Joe Hackney - current House Majority Leader - Orange Co.
Pros: Seasoned, tough, herds cats almost as well as Jim Black. Managed to push through an unpopular package of ethics and campaign finance reforms last session, even when it appeared to be destined for failure.
Cons: Seen by more conservative Dems as left of center, though he's done a smart job with a centrist agenda in recent years. He can also be a little stern and more than a little gruff. That may not work in his favor with new Dems who don't know him well.
Pros: His resume. He already knows how to handle the job. He's progressive but pragmatic, a talented politician who's likely to work with both parties. Thanks to his absence from 2002-06, he has absolutely no connection to any of the House's recent ethical troubles.
Cons: His resume. He wanted to return to the speakership in '99, but suffered a narrow defeat despite last-minute deals with the GOP. The rest is history, and it wasn't pretty. He still has a lot of baggage. Plus, many Dems in the house now weren't there during the early nineties, so they may not feel much loyalty to the former Speaker. The Legislative Black Caucus isn't completely behind him, either - two of the LBC's leaders aren't on board.
Rep Mickey Michaux - Senior Dem, J-2 chair, LBC leader - Durham Co.
Pros: His 27 years in the house have earned him a lot of status and more than a few favors. He's plain-spoken, funny, and very smart.
Cons: His habit of speaking his mind could be seen as a potential lightning rod for controversy. He's also on the liberal side, like Hackney. And with the Black Caucus largely backing Blue, it's not clear where he'll find his core support.
Rep Jim Crawford - Veteran Dem, perennial budget "big chair" - Granville Co.
Pros: He's been around for 22 years, close to Black for the past 8, so he has plenty of insight into how the place works, and he's made a lot of friends. He's viewed as a savvy pro-business conservative who works well with Republicans.
Cons: May be too "business-friendly" and too conservative for the more progressive wing of the caucus, including some of its new members. And he was a loyal lieutenant under Black, though he hasn't been touched by any of Black's troubles.
Rep Drew Saunders - Utilities Comm. chair, budget transportation sub chair - Mecklenberg Co.
Pros: He's the only candidate from Charlotte, a large legislative contingent that's fared well under Jim Black. They may back Saunders to keep the largesse coming after Black's departure. Saunders is seen as business-friendly, and works well with the GOP, but he's also run or supported some progressive causes.
Cons: He's mostly funded by the telecommunications, utilities, and banking lobbies, so he may be viewed by progressives as too friendly to big business. Like Crawford, he's also seen as a loyal friend of Black's, but not connected to the scandals around Black's office.
Wild Cards -
- The Republicans may be in the minority, but there are 52 of them -- more than enough to make it likely that some will seek to cut a deal with one of the candidates who doesn't win Wednesday night. And with such a wide gamut of ideological positions within the Dem caucus itself, it's possible one or the other extreme will break away if they don't like the caucus's choice.
- With no hard-and-fast favorite, it's always possible the caucus could pass over the short list and pick someone else entirely.
- Wednesday's vote is for the caucus's nominee, not for the Speakership itself. Things can change in two weeks - it wouldn't be the first time.
As things stand now, I think it'll be Hackney. Check back late Wednesday night to find out.
